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Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems

E-BookEPUBDRM AdobeE-Book
552 Seiten
Englisch
Elsevier Science & Techn.erschienen am28.06.2014
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic.

The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information.


Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.
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Verfügbare Formate
TaschenbuchKartoniert, Paperback
EUR72,00
E-BookEPUBDRM AdobeE-Book
EUR54,95

Produkt

KlappentextProbabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete and accessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic.

The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertainty--and offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognition--in short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information.


Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.
Details
Weitere ISBN/GTIN9780080514895
ProduktartE-Book
EinbandartE-Book
FormatEPUB
Format HinweisDRM Adobe
Erscheinungsjahr2014
Erscheinungsdatum28.06.2014
Seiten552 Seiten
SpracheEnglisch
Artikel-Nr.3161930
Rubriken
Genre9200

Inhalt/Kritik

Inhaltsverzeichnis
1;Front Cover;1
2;Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference;4
3;Copyright Page;5
4;Table of Contents;12
5;Dedication;6
6;Preface;8
7;Chapter 1. UNCERTAINTY IN AI SYSTEMS: AN OVERVIEW;22
7.1;1.1 INTRODUCTION;22
7.2;1.2 EXTENSIONAL SYSTEMS: MERITS, DEFICIENCIES, AND REMEDIES;25
7.3;1.3 INTENSIONAL SYSTEMS AND NETWORK REPRESENTATIONS;33
7.4;1.4 THE CASE FOR PROBABILITIES;35
7.5;1.5 QUALITATIVE REASONING WITH PROBABILITIES;44
7.6;1.6 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;47
8;Chapter 2. BAYESIAN INFERENCE;50
8.1;2.1 BASIC CONCEPTS;50
8.2;2.2 HIERARCHICAL MODELING;63
8.3;2.3 EPISTEMOLOGICAL ISSUES OF BELIEF UPDATING;73
8.4;2.4 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;91
8.5;Exercises;94
9;Chapter 3. MARKOV AND BAYESIAN NETWORKS;98
9.1;3.1 FROM NUMERICAL TO GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS;99
9.2;3.2 MARKOV NETWORKS;117
9.3;3.3 BAYESIAN NETWORKS;137
9.4;3.4 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;152
9.5;Exercises;155
9.6;APPENDIX 3-A Proof of Theorem 3;160
9.7;APPENDIX 3-B Proof of Theorem 4;162
10;Chapter 4. BELIEF UPDATING BY NETWORK PROPAGATION;164
10.1;4.1 AUTONOMOUS PROPAGATION AS A COMPUTATIONAL PARADIGM;165
10.2;4.2 BELIEF PROPAGATION IN CAUSAL TREES;171
10.3;4.3 BELIEF PROPAGATION IN CAUSAL POLYTREES (SINGLY CONNECTED NETWORKS);196
10.4;4.4 COPING WITH LOOPS;216
10.5;4.5 WHAT ELSE CAN BAYESIAN NETWORKS COMPUTE?;244
10.6;4.6 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;253
10.7;Exercises;255
10.8;APPENDIX 4-A Auxilliary Derivations for Section 4.5.3;257
11;Chapter 5. DISTRIBUTED REVISION OF COMPOSITE BELIEFS;260
11.1;5.1 INTRODUCTION;260
11.2;5.2 ILLUSTRATING THE PROPAGATION SCHEME;262
11.3;5.3 BELIEF REVISION IN SINGLY CONNECTED NETWORKS;271
11.4;5.4 DIAGNOSIS OF SYSTEMS WITH MULTIPLE FAULTS;284
11.5;5.5 APPLICATION TO MEDICAL DIAGNOSIS;293
11.6;5.6 THE NATURE OF EXPLANATIONS;302
11.7;5.7 CONCLUSIONS;307
11.8;5.8 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;308
11.9;Exercises;309
12;Chapter 6. DECISION AND CONTROL;310
12.1;6.1 FROM BELIEFS TO ACTIONS: INTRODUCTION TO DECISION ANALYSIS;310
12.2;6.2 DECISION TREES AND INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS;320
12.3;6.3 THE VALUE OF INFORMATION;334
12.4;6.4 RELEVANCE-BASED CONTROL;339
12.5;6.5 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;348
12.6;Exercises;349
13;Chapter 7. TAXONOMIC HIERARCHIES, CONTINUOUS VARIABLES, AND UNCERTAIN PROBABILITIES;354
13.1;7.1 EVIDENTIAL REASONING IN TAXONOMIC HIERARCHIES;354
13.2;7.2 MANAGING CONTINUOUS VARIABLES;365
13.3;7.3 REPRESENTING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PROBABILITIES;378
13.4;7.4 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;393
13.5;Exercises;395
13.6;APPENDIX 7-A Derivation of Propagation Rules For Continuous Variables;396
14;Chapter 8. LEARNING STRUCTURE FROM DATA;402
14.1;8.1 CAUSALITY, MODULARITY, AND TREE STRUCTURES;404
14.2;8.2 STRUCTURING THE OBSERVABLES;408
14.3;8.3 LEARNING HIDDEN CAUSE;419
14.4;8.4 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;429
14.5;EXERCISES;430
14.6;APPENDIX 8-A Proof of Theorems 1 and 2;432
14.7;APPENDIX 8-B Conditions for Star-Decomposability (After Lazarfeld [1966]);433
15;Chapter 9. NON-BAYESIAN FORMALISMS FOR MANAGING UNCERTAINTY;436
15.1;9.1 THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY;437
15.2;9.2 TRUTH MAINTENANCE SYSTEMS;471
15.3;9.3 PROBABILISTIC LOGIC;478
15.4;9.4 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;483
15.5;Exercises;486
16;Chapter 10. LOGIC AND PROBABILITY: THE STRANGE CONNECTION;488
16.1;10.1 INTRODUCTION TO NONMONOTONIC REASONING;488
16.2;10.2 PROBABILISTIC SEMANTICS FOR DEFAULT REASONING;502
16.3;10.3 EMBRACING CAUSALITY IN DEFAULT REASONING;518
16.4;10.4 A PROBABILISTIC TREATMENT OF THE YALE SHOOTING PROBLEM;530
16.5;10.5 BIBLIOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL REMARKS;537
17;Exercises;539
18;Bibliography;542
19;Author Index;560
20;Subject Index;566
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