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The Great Money Bubble

Protect Yourself from the Coming Inflation Storm
BuchGebunden
Englisch
Humanix Bookserschienen am29.12.2022
"I urge everyone to read this important new book. -Ron Paul, Host of Ron Paul Liberty ReportAmericans are facing sticker shock at every turn: from the gas pump to the grocery store and every kind of consumer service. But the eye-popping price increases are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the threat to the country´s economic recovery. Inflation showers windfalls on the rich while penalizing workers, savers, retirees, small businesses, and most of Main Street economic life. New York Times bestselling author and former investment manager David A. Stockman, who served as director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan, explains the roots of today´s runaway inflation so investors at all levels can calibrate their financial strategies to survive and thrive despite economic uncertainty. The Great Money Bubble covers the entire economic landscape, including:Why the rising price of assets is far more dangerous than rising consumer pricesThe inside story on stock market manipulations and the effects of ultracheap debtWhy real estate is no longer a guaranteed inflationary hedgeStockman´s four-step strategy to protect your savings and portfolio After spearheading the economic policy for the Reagan Revolution, Stockman worked on Wall Street at the highest levels, and is now an adviser to professional investors. With this book, readers at all investment levels can have access to his groundbreaking financial advice.mehr
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Produkt

Klappentext"I urge everyone to read this important new book. -Ron Paul, Host of Ron Paul Liberty ReportAmericans are facing sticker shock at every turn: from the gas pump to the grocery store and every kind of consumer service. But the eye-popping price increases are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the threat to the country´s economic recovery. Inflation showers windfalls on the rich while penalizing workers, savers, retirees, small businesses, and most of Main Street economic life. New York Times bestselling author and former investment manager David A. Stockman, who served as director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan, explains the roots of today´s runaway inflation so investors at all levels can calibrate their financial strategies to survive and thrive despite economic uncertainty. The Great Money Bubble covers the entire economic landscape, including:Why the rising price of assets is far more dangerous than rising consumer pricesThe inside story on stock market manipulations and the effects of ultracheap debtWhy real estate is no longer a guaranteed inflationary hedgeStockman´s four-step strategy to protect your savings and portfolio After spearheading the economic policy for the Reagan Revolution, Stockman worked on Wall Street at the highest levels, and is now an adviser to professional investors. With this book, readers at all investment levels can have access to his groundbreaking financial advice.
Details
ISBN/GTIN978-1-63006-219-4
ProduktartBuch
EinbandartGebunden
FormatGenäht
Erscheinungsjahr2022
Erscheinungsdatum29.12.2022
SpracheEnglisch
MasseBreite 162 mm, Höhe 234 mm, Dicke 20 mm
Gewicht470 g
Artikel-Nr.58415215
Rubriken
GenreWirtschaft
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Inhalt/Kritik

Inhaltsverzeichnis
OUTLINE for INFLATION NIGHTMARE: How to Protect Your Money in the Coming Crash by David A. StockmanPart 1 Chapter 1: Washington´s Infernal Inflation MachineAn economist´s definition (classical, a la Friedman): Inflation is caused by central bank money printing, not by supply and demand for goods and services in the marketInflation artificially increases the price of almost everything: goods, services, housing, stocks, other financial assets, collectibles and cryptoReal world examples hereDifferent kinds of inflationCore inflation vs. food/energyReal world examples here, story formatPPI, CPI, inflation expectations, stagflation Real world examples here, story formatWhat´s normal inflation? Is it necessary for growth?Stockman´s thesis: Massive money printing is causing massive asset inflation in the form of stock prices that are not justified by earnings and interest rates that are drastically below what is needed to cover inflation and risk of loss, and it is tying up capital for long periods of time.Chapter 2: How do normal people experience inflation? How do you know if inflation is happening?Stories > as in what an average person experiences to what happens to paycheck/dividends/savings accountsRisk-free rate lower than inflationReal world examples here, story formatWhat happens to your paycheck when inflation runs hotReal world examples here, story formatSavings rates in the age of QEReal world examples here, story formatFed´s hedonic adjustment to hide inflation from ordinary peopleReal world examples here, story formatHow long you have to work to buy a good, such as a house or carFor instance, the average worker had to work 7,160 hours (almost four years) to buy the median home in 1971. By 2020, he had to work double that: 14,365 hours.Same was true of a new car. To buy a standard Ford Mustang Coupe, the average worker had to work 5.3 months in 1971, 8.2 months in 1997 and 10.8 months in 2020.While all that was happening, ordinary savers are barely keeping up with inflation in their paycheck while any savings they have suffer from low ratesExamples and data illustrating the above, 1990s CD rates vs. today, etcChapter 3: How to read the signs of inflationLessons from previous period (stories, not economic theory/economic policy)How Reagan and Paul Volcker fixed the inflation disaster of the 1970sBrief history of the periodReal world examples here, story formatThe Great Moderation of low inflation and growth ballyhooed by Bernanke in 2005 was a ruse.In fact, goods and services inflation was just temporarily pushed underground owing to imported deflation from ChinaA generation of investors and savers has now lulled to sleep by artificially low inflationChapter 4: Why inflation is a danger nowFor consumers, goods inflation has been artificially cheap while services inflation has taken off. As China matures, goods inflation will catch up.For investors, fiat credit has led to asset inflation, going to the top 1% as a massive, serendipitous windfallStock valuations are an illusion of the worst kind (Stockman thesis)P/E ratios are vastly inflated...earnings haven´t increased materially since 200715x earnings to now 35x earnings, the result of monetary inflationTech leaders have driven the indexes today for the most part (FAANG stock effect)Real world examples here, story formatProjected capital appreciation is falling (according to Vanguard et al) and yet new market highs keep getting printed, over and overHow long can the Fed keep this up, inflating the system?Inflation of asset has become institutionalized, nobody even thinks about it anymoreAt some point the music stops...right?Bond yields will go up, but bond prices will drop causing big capital lossesWhen bond yields go back to normal, justification for ultra high P/E multiples will collapse, causing stock prices to adjust drastically lowerSo what would actually happen to a typical retiree portfolio, real world examples here, story formatSimilarly, financial asset inflation makes the carrying cost of debt dirt cheap, thereby encouraging households to over-borrow in order to make up for the shrinking purchasing power of their wages.Accordingly, during the past three decades, household debt in all forms has increased from $36,000 per household to $130,000Expand on household debt examples: credit card explosion, home equity boom of 2007Part 2 Chapter 5: The slippery slope for investors nowEssentially when the Fed finally gets cornered and it becomes apparent that inflation is no longer transitory, and it has to deal with America´s $85 trillion of combined public and private debt, there will be big correctionsBond market is biggest bubble in historyStories from bond market breaks pastBond repricing will spread to the stock marketWhen all correlations fall to zero, as in 2007, nowhere to hide Real world examples here, story formatInvestors think high stock prices are sustainable because high P/E multiples are justified by ultra-low bond yieldsBut that will correct in the tech sector, deflating the value of the whole stock market since they have lead the growth for yearsEverything prices off the 10-year bond, if that´s 200 bp under inflation, can that last? It can´tChapter 6: How to invest once inflation really takes off: how to protect hard-earned savingsInflation-proof "real assets" investmentsREITS/Real EstateArt (Alternative investments)Cryptocurrency CommoditiesTIPSGrowth Stocks that do well in inflationary timesBanks/FinancialsFoodHealthcareEnergyBuilding MaterialsWhat will in fact work: The role of cash and true hedgesStick to short-term cash-type investments (T-bills, savings accounts, CDs) cash and keep as liquid as possibleCash is not trash, it will soon be treasureGold as a hedgeBuying puts (how to do this safely using funds or ETFs)Federal government is not going awayTreasury bills are safe, if lower rate of return: likely 2% to 4% return once Fed is forced to let interest rates rise to check CPI inflationChapter 7: What Investments to Avoid and WhyAvoid meme stocks, tech stocks, flavor of the month trading, crypto schemesBubble thinking is a symptom of underlying sicknessChapter 8: Debt StrategyWhat to do with any debt you might have/credit cards, mortgage, college loans, medical billsmehr

Autor

David A. Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.

Stockman's career in Washington began in 1970, when he served as a special assistant to U.S. Representative, John Anderson of Illinois. From 1972 to 1975, he was executive director of the U.S. House of Representatives Republican Conference. Stockman was elected as a Michigan Congressman in 1976 and held the position until his resignation in January 1981. He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, serving from 1981 until August 1985. Stockman was the youngest cabinet member in the 20th century. Although only in his early 30s, Stockman became well known to the public during this time concerning the role of the federal government in American society.

After leaving government, Stockman joined Wall Street investment bank Salomon Bros. He later became one of the original partners at New York-based private equity firm, The Blackstone Group. Stockman left Blackstone in 1999 to start his own private equity fund based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Stockman is the author of numerous New York Times bestselling books and also provides private research and analysis to professional investors and firms globally through David Stockman's Contra Corner, his subscriber advisory relating to investing, global economics, and public policy.

Stockman was born in Ft. Hood, Texas. He received his B.A. from Michigan State University and pursued graduate studies at Harvard Divinity School. He lives with his wife Jennifer Blei Stockman, and they have two daughters, Rachel and Victoria. He lives & works in the Miami, Florida metro area.

www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com
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