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Probably Overthinking It

How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions
BuchGebunden
256 Seiten
Englisch
The University of Chicago Presserschienen am06.12.2023
An essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making.   Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor´s office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.  Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls-like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson´s paradox-and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don´t. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics-or if you have and forgot everything you learned-this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.mehr
Verfügbare Formate
BuchGebunden
EUR25,50
E-BookEPUBDRM AdobeE-Book
EUR29,99

Produkt

KlappentextAn essential guide to the ways data can improve decision making.   Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor´s office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.  Probably Overthinking It uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls-like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson´s paradox-and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don´t. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics-or if you have and forgot everything you learned-this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.
Details
ISBN/GTIN978-0-226-82258-7
ProduktartBuch
EinbandartGebunden
Erscheinungsjahr2023
Erscheinungsdatum06.12.2023
Seiten256 Seiten
SpracheEnglisch
MasseBreite 156 mm, Höhe 233 mm, Dicke 24 mm
Gewicht478 g
Artikel-Nr.60333565

Inhalt/Kritik

Inhaltsverzeichnis
Introduction 1. Are You Normal? Hint: No 2. Relay Races and Revolving Doors 3. Defy Tradition, Save the World 4. Extremes, Outliers, and GOATs 5. Better Than New 6. Jumping to Conclusions 7. Causation, Collision, and Confusion 8. The Long Tail of Disaster 9. Fairness and Fallacy 10. Penguins, Pessimists, and Paradoxes 11. Changing Hearts and Minds 12. Chasing the Overton Window Epilogue Acknowledgments Bibliography Indexmehr