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Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

E-BookPDF1 - PDF WatermarkE-Book
246 Seiten
Englisch
Springer International Publishingerschienen am16.12.20191st ed. 2020
This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. 

Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses.

This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. 



Christian Dayé is Research Fellow at the Science, Technology and Society (STS) Unit of Graz University of Technology, Austria.
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E-BookPDF1 - PDF WatermarkE-Book
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Produkt

KlappentextThis book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. 

Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses.

This consideration of the expert's role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy. 



Christian Dayé is Research Fellow at the Science, Technology and Society (STS) Unit of Graz University of Technology, Austria.
Details
Weitere ISBN/GTIN9783030327811
ProduktartE-Book
EinbandartE-Book
FormatPDF
Format Hinweis1 - PDF Watermark
FormatE107
Erscheinungsjahr2019
Erscheinungsdatum16.12.2019
Auflage1st ed. 2020
Seiten246 Seiten
SpracheEnglisch
IllustrationenXVI, 246 p. 12 illus.
Artikel-Nr.5006513
Rubriken
Genre9200

Inhalt/Kritik

Inhaltsverzeichnis
1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts.- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951.- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956.- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material.- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964.- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.mehr