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Envisioning Uncertain Futures

E-BookPDF1 - PDF WatermarkE-Book
255 Seiten
Englisch
Springer Fachmedien Wiesbadenerschienen am26.02.20191st ed. 2018
This book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.


Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin.


Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author.

Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship 'Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation' at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH.mehr
Verfügbare Formate
BuchKartoniert, Paperback
EUR53,49
E-BookPDF1 - PDF WatermarkE-Book
EUR53,49

Produkt

KlappentextThis book contains a collection of projects and scenarios dealing with new risks from emerging technologies, future peace keeping operations, and water distribution issues by combining analysis with dialogue. Special attention is paid to the methodology of narrative scenarios, and the role of imagination in the generation of these scenarios. Appearing as short stories, narrative scenarios include a great amount of explicit and implicit knowledge and they need story telling skills to become consistent, coherent as well as compelling and convincing pictures of the future.


Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin.


Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author.

Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship 'Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation' at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH.
Details
Weitere ISBN/GTIN9783658250744
ProduktartE-Book
EinbandartE-Book
FormatPDF
Format Hinweis1 - PDF Watermark
FormatE107
Erscheinungsjahr2019
Erscheinungsdatum26.02.2019
Auflage1st ed. 2018
ReiheZukunft und Forschung
Seiten255 Seiten
SpracheEnglisch
IllustrationenXIV, 255 p. 1 illus.
Artikel-Nr.4168529
Rubriken
Genre9200

Inhalt/Kritik

Inhaltsverzeichnis
1;Content;6
2;Foreword;9
3;1 Introduction;15
4;I. Scenarios - A Methodological Tool;22
4.1;2 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument;22
4.1.1;Introduction;22
4.1.2;Types of Scenarios;24
4.1.3;Narrative Scenarios;26
4.1.4;Idea Line vs. Plot Line;28
4.1.5;Decoding and Using Narrative Scenarios;31
4.1.6;Conclusion;32
4.1.7;References;32
4.2;3 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios - An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight;35
4.2.1;Introduction;35
4.2.2;The Process;37
4.2.3;Communication and Impact;45
4.2.4;References;45
4.3;4 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight;47
4.3.1;Introduction;47
4.3.2;Imagination in science fiction: What if⦠;49
4.3.3;Science fiction and foresight;51
4.3.4;Wild cards: Imagining surprising events;55
4.3.5;Conclusion;64
4.3.6;References;65
4.4;5 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue;67
4.4.1;Introduction;67
4.4.2;Threat scenarios;68
4.4.3;Urban Security 2025: The safe city or security as a social problem (short version);70
4.4.4;Airport Security 2025: Adventure Airport or coping with uncertainty?;73
4.4.5;Scenarios as an instrument for dialogue;75
4.4.6;Risk perception and risk communication;76
4.4.7;The new culture of uncertainty;77
4.4.8;Politics as stakeholder;78
4.4.9;Conclusion: Security dialogues as a task of security research;78
4.4.10;References;79
4.5;6 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry;81
4.5.1;Introduction;81
4.5.2;Horror scenarios and their function as a policy instrument;83
4.5.3;The example of dark scenarios for EU transport industry 1960 s-1980 s;85
4.5.4;Dark scenarios about the American threat ;86
4.5.5;Dark scenarios about the Japanese threat;88
4.5.6;Proposing new dark scenarios for today;92
4.5.7;Conclusion;95
4.5.8;References;98
5;II. Scenarios in Practice;102
5.1;7 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies;102
5.1.1;Introduction;102
5.1.2;Scenario Process;104
5.1.3;Five scenarios for privacy and emerging technologies;109
5.1.4;Future-oriented SWOT method;112
5.1.5;Limitations and improvements;117
5.1.6;Discussion;122
5.1.7;Conclusions;124
5.1.8;References;124
5.2;8 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector;129
5.2.1;Background of the project;129
5.2.2;The Salon method;132
5.2.3;Using scenarios in the Salon method;134
5.2.4;References;136
5.3;9 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project;138
5.3.1;References;148
5.4;10 Peace Operations 2025 : From Shaping Factors to Scenarios;149
5.4.1;Brief Summaries of the ZIF Scenarios;162
5.4.2;References;166
5.5;11 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project;168
5.5.1;Introduction;168
5.5.2;The FESTOS Project;169
5.5.3;Technology Signals of Change;170
5.5.4;Categorizing signals of change;173
5.5.5;From signals to scenarios;179
5.5.6;Conclusion;180
5.5.7;References;181
5.6;12 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios;182
5.6.1;Introduction;182
5.6.2;Basic challenges;183
5.6.3;The Scenarios;185
5.6.4;Methodological structure;186
5.6.5;Scenario workshop;188
5.6.6;Finalization;191
5.6.7;Indicators as a strategic instrument for security improvement;191
5.6.8;Conclusion;194
5.6.9;References;195
5.7;13 The FESTOS Scenarios;198
5.7.1;How to read the scenarios?;198
6;III. Synopsis;230
6.1;14 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios;230
6.1.1;Introduction;230
6.1.2;How to start?;231
6.1.3;Challenges;232
6.1.4;Strengths;233
6.1.5;New perspectives;234
6.1.6;Complex issues - displayed in an intuitive way;236
6.1.7;Obstacles;237
6.1.8;What is the best method?;237
6.1.9;Attitude matters;240
6.1.10;How can scenarios be used and utilized?;241
6.1.11;The scenarios in this book;245
6.1.12;References;246
6.2;15 Conclusion;250
7;About the Authors;256mehr

Autor

Roman Peperhove is head of the research Unit for Public Security at Freie Universität Berlin.

Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is scientific director of a foresight consulting company and science fiction author.
Prof. Dr. Hans-Liudger Dienel holds the professorship "Arbeitslehre/Technik und Partizipation" at the Technical University of Berlin and is Managing Director of the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research GmbH.
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